Nigeria’s leading export, and its main source of national revenue, is crude oil. In 2023, crude oil exports reached about N29 trillion, accounting for about 81% of the country’s total export value (National Bureau of Statistics, 2024). This dependence places Nigeria in a vulnerable position, as fluctuations in oil prices have a direct effect on revenue and can destabilise the economy (IMF, 2023). In contrast, agriculture contributed only 5.73% of total exports, while other oil products contribute 16.87% (NBS, 2024). Recent figures, however, show progress in diversification. Nigeria’s non-oil exports rose to 3.2 billion dollars in the first half of 2025(Nigerian Export Promotion Council, 2025). Products such as cocoa beans, fertiliser, and cashew nuts dominated this growth, with cocoa alone representing about 35% of total export value. These results reflect the government’s efforts to move the economy away from crude oil, which continues to provide about two-thirds of state income and around 80% of foreign currency earnings (World Bank, 2024).
The African Continental Free Trade Area (“AfCFTA” or “Agreement”), created in 2018 and effective from May 2019, represents an important framework for this transition (African Union, 2019). Nigeria ratified the agreement in December 2020, committing to its trade liberalisation protocols (Federal Government of Nigeria, 2020). The AfCFTA seeks to establish a single African market for goods and services, promoting regional trade and deeper economic integration. It is now the largest free trade area in the world, measured by both land area and the number of participating countries. Projections by the World Bank suggest that, if fully implemented, the AfCFTA could lift 30 million Africans out of extreme poverty and 68 million out of moderate poverty by 2035. It could also increase intra-African trade by 81% and raise average wages by 10%(World Bank, 2020). For Nigeria, this translates into access to a market of 1.4 billion consumers, reduced tariffs, lower trade barriers, and cheaper export costs(UNECA,2021).
For non-oil products such as cocoa, cashew, sesame, ginger, solid minerals, and manufactured goods, the AfCFTA offers strong opportunities for growth yet significant challenges remain such as weak logistics and infrastructure which restrict competitiveness(WTO, 2022). To maximise benefits, Nigeria requires supportive policies that strengthen non-oil sectors and encourage active participation from the private sector(NEPC, 2025).
This article examines the extent of AfCFTA’s impact on Nigerian exporters, their limitations and the strategies required to enhance their position in the global market. Addressing these issues will be critical for reducing dependence on crude oil and building a stronger, more diversified export base.
OVERVIEW OF THE AFCFTA
The AfCFTA is a continent wide agreement aimed at liberalising trade within the African Union (AU). It has been ratified by 54 of the 55 AU member states, with Eritrea as the only exception, and came into effect on 1 January 2021(African Union, 2021). By population, the AfCFTA represents the largest free trade area in the world.
The main goal of the AfCFTA is to create a single African market for goods and services, attract investment, and lay the foundation for a Continental Customs Union. By doing so, it seeks to expand intra-African trade and strengthen economic growth across the continent. Many multilateral bodies, including the AU, the United Nations, and the World Bank, have described the AfCFTA as a major driver for Africa’s trade integration.
Yet there is no guarantee that the Agreement will fully deliver on Africa’s aspirations for structural transformation and inclusive growth. One important point to note is that, unlike most modern trade agreements, the AfCFTA does not include provisions on labour (ILO, 2021). This makes it necessary for trade unions and related organisations to carefully assess the AfCFTA, its protocols, and its potential impact.
The AfCFTA is implemented through nine protocols, which outline the rules and procedures guiding the Agreement. The Protocol on Trade in Goods focuses on liberalising trade in commodities and manufactured products. The Protocol on Trade in Services, which came into effect on 30 May 2019, provides the framework for reducing barriers to services trade through negotiations between member states. The full effect of this protocol, however, depends on the successful conclusion of these ongoing negotiations.
Unlike goods, services are mostly restricted by Non-Tariff Barriers (NTBs). These include industry regulations, restrictions on the movement of skilled labour, lack of recognition for foreign qualifications, and limitations on the number or scale of businesses in certain industries(UNECA, 2021). While these barriers are often designed to protect consumers (such as in air travel), ensure professional competence (such as in legal services), or safeguard compliance with domestic rules (such as in auditing and accounting), they can also reduce competitiveness and limit access to new markets.
The Protocol on Trade in Services addresses these challenges by establishing a framework for negotiations aimed at reducing or simplifying such barriers, while still respecting the regulatory needs of member states.
Nigeria’s medium- and long-term policy plans reflect the importance of non-oil exports within this wider context. The National Development Plan (NDP) 2021–2025 hi…
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About the Author
Elohor Benedicta Omughele is a graduate of Delta State University, Oleh Campus where she obtained her LLB. She proceeded to the Nigerian Law School, Enugu, where she obtained her BL and was called to the Nigerian Bar in March 2024. She is a practicing legal practitioner with a strong interest in International Trade and Commercial law. Currently, Elohor practices with Reliable Solicitors, a private law firm where she engages actively in legal Research. She aims to build a career at the global level, where law and trade contributes to the African economy and provides opportunities for business owners.
Email: omughelebened@gmail.com
